Research

Work in Progress

The Value of Outside Options: Measurement, Impact and Inequality.
Abstract: Do wages in other firms shape employment outcomes? This paper adopts a peer effects framework combined with machine learning methods to identify workers’ relevant labor markets and estimate the influence of their quality and structure on wages. High-wage workers tend to work in better-paying markets, but their outside options are worse relative to their current firm. Furthermore, I find that a 10% increase in the quality of other firms in the market is associated with an increase in real wages by 3%, on average. However, controlling for common market shocks flips this sign, showing evidence of a strong wage markdown consistent with backloaded pay structures. This effect is stronger for new hires and less skilled workers. Finally, I show that the structure and quality of labor markets matter for inequality: about 15% of the wage variance in Portugal can be explained by differences in market-specific pay premia.

Working Papers

Explaining rural start‑up firms and entrepreneurship in Portugal
Jointly with Michelle Marshalian, Simone Sasso, and Wessel Vermeulen
OECD Regional Development Papers, No. 182, 2026
The Labor Market Decisions of Older Workers in Ageing Economies: Evidence from Spain and the UK
Jointly with Pragyan Deb, Gloria Li, and Carlo Pizzinelli
IMF Working Paper 2025/30, 2025
On the Asymmetrical Sensitivity of the Distribution of Real Wages to Business Cycle Fluctuations
Jointly with Eduardo Costa and Pedro Portugal
IZA DP No. 16911, 2024
Coverage: Jornal de Negócios (PT)
Medium-term Investment Responses to Activity Shocks: The Role of Corporate Debt
Jointly with Paloma Lopez-Garcia and Ralph Setzer
ECB Working Paper Series - No. 2751, 2023
Coverage: The ECB Blog

Other Work

Exploring the Determinants of Early Retirement in Spain
Jointly with Carlo Pizzinelli
IMF Selected Issues Papers 2025/078, 2025
Firm Productivity Dynamism in the Euro Area
Jointly with Vasco Botelho and Paloma Lopez-Garcia
ECB Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022
Key Factors Behind Productivity Trends in EU Countries
ECB Occasional Paper Series - No. 268, 2021
Research done as part of the ECB Work Stream on Productivity.