Research

Work in Progress

The Value of Outside Options: Measurement, Impact and Inequality.
Abstract: Do wages in other firms shape employment outcomes? This paper adopts a peer effects framework combined with machine learning methods to identify workers’ relevant labor markets and estimate the influence of their quality and structure on wages. High-wage workers tend to work in better-paying markets, but their outside options are worse relative to their current firm. Furthermore, I find that a 10% increase in the quality of other firms in the market is associated with an increase in real wages by 3%, on average. However, controlling for common market shocks flips this sign, showing evidence of a strong wage markdown consistent with backloaded pay structures. This effect is stronger for new hires and less skilled workers. Finally, I show that the structure and quality of labor markets matter for inequality: about 15% of the wage variance in Portugal can be explained by differences in market-specific pay premia.

Working Papers

The Labor Market Decisions of Older Workers in Ageing Economies: Evidence from Spain and the UK
Jointly with Pragyan Deb, Gloria Li, and Carlo Pizzinelli
IMF Working Paper 2025/30, 2025
On the Asymmetrical Sensitivity of the Distribution of Real Wages to Business Cycle Fluctuations
Jointly with Eduardo Costa and Pedro Portugal
IZA DP No. 16911, 2024
Coverage: Jornal de Negócios (PT)
Medium-term Investment Responses to Activity Shocks: The Role of Corporate Debt
Jointly with Paloma Lopez-Garcia and Ralph Setzer
ECB Working Paper Series - No. 2751, 2023
Coverage: The ECB Blog

Other Publications

Exploring the Determinants of Early Retirement in Spain
Jointly with Carlo Pizzinelli
IMF Selected Issues Papers 2025/078, 2025
Firm Productivity Dynamism in the Euro Area
Jointly with Vasco Botelho and Paloma Lopez-Garcia
ECB Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022
Key Factors Behind Productivity Trends in EU Countries
ECB Occasional Paper Series - No. 268, 2021
Research done as part of the ECB Work Stream on Productivity.